BankCreds Research · Data study
Gold Price Seasonality in India: Month-by-Month Changes
In RBI’s monthly gold-price data for Oct 2016–Jul 2026, January recorded the largest average month-on-month change (+3.55%, higher in 10 of 10 years) and July the smallest (+0.04%, higher in 3 of 10), according to BankCreds analysis. Every calendar month averaged a rise because the price trended strongly upward, so these patterns describe the past rather than predict any month.
- Published
- 8 October 2026
- Last updated
- 8 October 2026
- Data period
- October 2016 – July 2026
- Dataset
- RBI v1.0 · 118 months
By BankCreds Research & Data Team · Reviewed by BankCreds Financial Experts · Fact-checked by BankCreds Content & SEO Team
Executive summary
This study groups 117 month-on-month changes in RBI’s average price of standard gold in Mumbai by calendar month. January stands out, with the highest average change (+3.55%) and gains in 10 of 10 years; July had the lowest average (+0.04%). October, when Dhanteras and Diwali usually fall, averaged +2.39%; April, the usual month for Akshaya Tritiya, averaged +3.28%. The differences are modest next to the typical monthly swing (a standard deviation of 3.31%), and each month has only 9 or 10 observations — so the results are a description of Oct 2016–Jul 2026, not a timing rule.
Key findings
Each finding is self-contained and may be quoted with attribution to BankCreds Research. Link a single finding with its anchor (#finding-1, #finding-2 …).
- 1
BankCreds analysis of 117 monthly changes in RBI’s gold price (Oct 2016–Jul 2026) found January had the highest average change, +3.55%, and was higher than the previous month in 10 of 10 years.
- 2
July had the weakest average change, +0.04%, and rose in 3 of 10 years.
- 3
January was the most consistent month, higher in 10 of 10 years; July was the least consistent, higher in 3 of 10.
- 4
All 12 calendar months had a positive average change over the period, reflecting the series’ overall rise of 17.3% a year rather than any month being reliably positive.
- 5
October — when Dhanteras and Diwali usually fall — averaged +2.39% and rose in 7 of 9 years; November averaged +0.49% and rose in 4 of 10.
- 6
April and May, the months in which Akshaya Tritiya falls, averaged +3.28% (higher in 8 of 10 years) and +0.80% (higher in 8 of 10).
- 7
June, July and December recorded the smallest average changes (+0.20%, +0.04% and +0.20% respectively), and January, April and October the largest (+3.55%, +3.28% and +2.39%).
- 8
The typical month-to-month swing was large relative to these averages: the standard deviation of monthly changes was 3.31%, against an overall average change of +1.39%.
- 9
Each calendar month has only 9 or 10 observations in this period, too few for any of the differences between months to be treated as a reliable pattern.
Key statistics
- Strongest month (average)
- January
- +3.55%, up in 10 of 10 years
- Weakest month (average)
- July
- +0.04%, up in 3 of 10 years
- October (Diwali season)
- +2.39%
- up in 7 of 9 years
- April (Akshaya Tritiya)
- +3.28%
- up in 8 of 10 years
- Typical monthly swing
- 3.31%
- standard deviation
- Monthly changes analysed
- 117
- Oct 2016–Jul 2026
Embed this chart
How to read a seasonality table
For each calendar month, we take the change in RBI’s monthly average price from the month before — for example, how January’s average compared with December’s — and then average those changes across the years in the data. “Higher in 8 of 10 years” counts how often that month’s average beat the previous month’s.
Because gold rose 374% over this period, the typical month was a rising month, and so every calendar month shows a positive average. What carries information is the relative pattern: some months gained much more on average than others, and some rose far less often. The colour grid below shows every individual month, so you can see how much a single year drives each average.
Festival and wedding months
Readers often ask whether festival and wedding months move the gold price. In this data, October averaged +2.39% (higher in 7 of 9 years) and November +0.49% (higher in 4 of 10); April averaged +3.28% and May +0.80%. The figures show what prices did in those months; they do not show why, and this study does not attribute the moves to festival buying or any other cause.
Why this is not a buying calendar
Three things limit what seasonality can tell you. First, each month has only 9 or 10 observations, so one unusual year moves its average noticeably. Second, the month-to-month swing is large: a standard deviation of 3.31% against an average change of +1.39%. Third, the period was dominated by a strong uptrend, which lifts every month. Taken together, the data does not support timing purchases or sales by calendar month, and nothing here is a forecast.
For the full price path, see our gold price history report; for the size of the swings and falls, see the volatility and drawdowns study.
If you are pledging gold for a loan
A gold loan is based on the value of your gold when you pledge it, so the price in the month you borrow affects how much you can get. The gold loan eligibility calculator shows the amount at today’s rate.
Data tables
Month-on-month change by calendar month
| Month | Average change | Median change | Years higher | Best year | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.55% | +3.68% | 10 of 10 | 2026 (+11.3%) | 2022 (+0.1%) |
| February | +2.06% | +2.25% | 8 of 10 | 2025 (+7.5%) | 2021 (−5.0%) |
| March | +0.58% | +0.81% | 6 of 10 | 2024 (+5.2%) | 2021 (−5.2%) |
| April | +3.28% | +3.02% | 8 of 10 | 2024 (+9.4%) | 2026 (−2.2%) |
| May | +0.80% | +0.91% | 8 of 10 | 2026 (+3.2%) | 2022 (−2.2%) |
| June | +0.20% | −0.04% | 5 of 10 | 2019 (+4.4%) | 2026 (−4.3%) |
| July | +0.04% | −0.25% | 3 of 10 | 2020 (+5.4%) | 2026 (−3.7%) |
| August | +1.83% | +1.68% | 5 of 9 | 2019 (+8.2%) | 2018 (−1.5%) |
| September | +1.44% | +1.53% | 6 of 9 | 2025 (+9.9%) | 2020 (−4.0%) |
| October | +2.39% | +1.19% | 7 of 9 | 2025 (+11.2%) | 2017 (−1.3%) |
| November | +0.49% | −0.30% | 4 of 10 | 2023 (+3.4%) | 2018 (−1.5%) |
| December | +0.20% | −0.06% | 4 of 10 | 2025 (+6.7%) | 2016 (−6.9%) |
Every month’s change, year by year
Green = the month’s average rose on the previous month; red = it fell. Deeper colour = larger move.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | −0.9% | −6.9% | ||||||||||
| 2017 | +3.6% | +1.8% | −1.7% | +0.9% | −1.9% | +1.2% | −2.3% | +2.6% | +3.5% | −1.3% | −0.4% | −2.2% |
| 2018 | +3.8% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +1.9% | +0.4% | −1.3% | −2.0% | −1.5% | +3.0% | +3.1% | −1.5% | +0.8% |
| 2019 | +3.1% | +3.1% | −3.6% | −1.2% | +0.2% | +4.4% | +4.2% | +8.2% | +1.5% | +0.8% | −0.2% | −0.1% |
| 2020 | +5.0% | +3.0% | +2.6% | +7.6% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +5.4% | +6.1% | −4.0% | −0.2% | −0.5% | −2.0% |
| 2021 | +0.3% | −5.0% | −5.2% | +4.2% | +2.9% | +0.1% | −0.3% | −1.4% | −1.1% | +1.4% | +2.1% | −0.6% |
| 2022 | +0.1% | +2.7% | +5.1% | +0.5% | −2.2% | −0.1% | −0.0% | +1.7% | −3.3% | +1.2% | +2.7% | +4.0% |
| 2023 | +4.3% | +0.7% | +1.5% | +4.6% | +0.7% | −2.5% | −0.2% | −0.3% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +3.4% | +2.3% |
| 2024 | +0.2% | −0.5% | +5.2% | +9.4% | +1.1% | −0.2% | −1.1% | −1.1% | +3.5% | +5.3% | −0.6% | −0.0% |
| 2025 | +3.8% | +7.5% | +2.2% | +7.1% | +1.6% | +2.7% | +0.4% | +2.2% | +9.9% | +11.2% | +0.9% | +6.7% |
| 2026 | +11.3% | +5.5% | −0.5% | −2.2% | +3.2% | −4.3% | −3.7% |
Methodology
Data. RBI monthly average price of standard gold, Mumbai, ₹ per 10 grams (dataset version 1.0, updated 8 October 2026).
Calculations. Monthly change = this month’s average ÷ the previous month’s average − 1, computed only between consecutive published months. For each calendar month we report the mean and median of its changes, the number of years it was higher than the previous month, and its best and worst years. No adjustment is made for the overall trend; the trend’s effect is stated in the findings instead. Percentages are rounded to two decimals after calculation.
Full standards: BankCreds research methodology.
Data sources
- Reserve Bank of India, Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy — table “Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Domestic and Foreign Markets” (Gold, Mumbai); retrieved 4 October 2026.
- Reserve Bank of India, RBI Bulletin — Current Statistics No. 21, “Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Mumbai”; retrieved 4 October 2026.
Limitations
- Only 9 or 10 observations per calendar month; differences between months are not statistically significant.
- The period (Oct 2016–Jul 2026) was dominated by a strong uptrend, which raises every month’s average.
- Festival dates move between months from year to year; the study groups by calendar month, not by festival date.
- Monthly averages smooth daily moves; the price on a particular festival day can differ from its month’s average.
- Past seasonal patterns do not predict future prices; this is not investment advice.
Download the report
The full report as a PDF — findings, charts, data tables, methodology and sources — updated 8 October 2026.
Download PDF reportFrequently asked questions
In which month does gold rise the most in India?
Which month is gold cheapest in India?
Does gold go up before Diwali?
Is Akshaya Tritiya a good time to buy gold?
How was this seasonality calculated?
Cite this research
You may quote the findings and reuse the charts under CC BY 4.0. Please credit BankCreds Research and link to this page. More options: Use our data.
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Version history. Report v1.0 (2026-10-08): First publication. · RBI dataset v1.0 (2026-10-08): First release: 118 months, 2016-10 to 2026-07.
This research describes historical data. It is not investment, borrowing or tax advice, does not forecast prices and does not guarantee any outcome. See our editorial policy, fact-checking policy and corrections policy.