BankCreds Research · Statistical report
Gold Price Volatility in India: How Often and How Far Prices Fell
India’s average gold price rose in 74 of 117 months (63%) between October 2016 and July 2026, with a typical monthly swing of 3.31% (about 11.5% a year), according to BankCreds analysis of RBI data. Its deepest fall from a previous high was 15.6%, from August 2020 to March 2021, and the price did not regain that high until December 2022.
- Published
- 8 October 2026
- Last updated
- 8 October 2026
- Data period
- October 2016 – July 2026
- Dataset
- RBI v1.0 · 118 months
By BankCreds Research & Data Team · Reviewed by BankCreds Financial Experts · Fact-checked by BankCreds Content & SEO Team
Executive summary
Long-run gold returns look smooth in a single growth rate; this study measures the ride. Using RBI’s monthly average price of standard gold in Mumbai, it counts rising and falling months, sizes the largest moves, tracks every fall from a previous high and how long recovery took, and tests how often holding for 12, 36 or 60 months ended higher. In this period 92% of 12-month windows ended higher, as did 100% of 36-month and 100% of 60-month windows — but the worst 12-month window returned −11.0%, and as of July 2026 the price was 7.9% below its May 2026 high.
Key findings
Each finding is self-contained and may be quoted with attribution to BankCreds Research. Link a single finding with its anchor (#finding-1, #finding-2 …).
- 1
BankCreds analysis of 117 month-on-month changes in RBI’s gold price (Oct 2016–Jul 2026) found 74 rises (63%) and 43 falls.
- 2
The average monthly change was +1.39% and the median +0.86%; the standard deviation of monthly changes was 3.31%, equivalent to about 11.5% a year.
- 3
The largest one-month rise was +11.3% (January 2026) and the largest one-month fall −6.9% (December 2016).
- 4
18 of 117 months moved by 5% or more in either direction.
- 5
The deepest fall from a previous high was 15.6%, from August 2020 to March 2021; the price regained that high in December 2022, 21 months after the low.
- 6
The series recorded 3 separate falls of 5% or more from a previous high.
- 7
As of July 2026, the monthly average was 7.9% below its high of May 2026.
- 8
Of 106 rolling 12-month periods, 92% ended higher; outcomes ranged from −11.0% (12 months to August 2021) to +84.6% (12 months to January 2026).
- 9
Of 82 rolling 36-month periods, 100% ended higher; the weakest compounded 3.5% a year (to August 2023) and the strongest 39.6% (to February 2026).
- 10
Of 58 rolling five-year periods, 100% ended higher, the weakest compounding 9.4% a year.
- 11
The longest run of consecutive rising months was 14 (January 2025 to February 2026); the longest falling run was 4 months (September 2020 to December 2020).
- 12
In the five years to July 2026, monthly volatility was about 12.0% a year and 67% of months rose, compared with 11.5% and 63% over the whole period.
Key statistics
- Months that rose
- 63%
- 74 of 117
- Typical monthly swing
- 3.31%
- ≈ 11.5% a year
- Largest monthly fall
- −6.9%
- December 2016
- Deepest drawdown
- 15.6%
- August 2020 → March 2021
- Time to recover
- 21 months
- back to the high in December 2022
- 12-month periods that rose
- 92%
- 106 windows
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Volatility: how big the monthly moves were
Gold’s monthly average moved by a median +0.86% a month, but individual months ranged from −6.9% to +11.3%. A standard deviation of 3.31% a month means a move of that size in a single month was ordinary rather than exceptional, and 18 months moved by 5% or more. Because these are monthly averages, day-to-day swings were larger still.
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Drawdowns: how far gold fell and how long it took to recover
A drawdown is the fall from the highest price reached so far. The deepest in this data ran from August 2020 to March 2021 — a fall of 15.6% — and the price did not regain its August 2020 level until December 2022. Someone who bought at that peak waited 28 months to be back where they started. The drawdown chart shows every such episode; the table lists each fall of 5% or more.
Holding periods: how often longer stretches ended higher
Short holding periods were mixed: 92% of 12-month periods ended higher, but the worst returned −11.0%. Over longer stretches, 100% of 36-month periods and 100% of five-year periods ended higher. That is a statement about one rising decade — Oct 2016–Jul 2026 — and should not be read as a promise that gold always rises over three or five years. For the long-run path see the gold price history report, and for calendar-month patterns the seasonality study.
What price falls mean for a gold loan
A gold loan is lent against the current value of your gold, so a fall in the gold price reduces the cushion between what you owe and what the pledged gold is worth. A 15.6% fall like the one between August 2020 and March 2021 can push a loan close to the lender’s limit. The gold loan auction risk calculator shows how much price room your loan has.
Data tables
Falls of 5% or more from a previous high
| High | Low | Fall | Back at the high | Months from low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2016 | December 2016 | 7.7% | February 2018 | 14 |
| August 2020 | March 2021 | 15.6% | December 2022 | 21 |
| May 2026 | July 2026 | 7.9% | not yet | — |
Five largest monthly rises
| Month | Change |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | +11.3% |
| October 2025 | +11.2% |
| September 2025 | +9.9% |
| April 2024 | +9.4% |
| August 2019 | +8.2% |
Five largest monthly falls
| Month | Change |
|---|---|
| December 2016 | −6.9% |
| March 2021 | −5.2% |
| February 2021 | −5.0% |
| June 2026 | −4.3% |
| September 2020 | −4.0% |
Methodology
Data. RBI monthly average price of standard gold, Mumbai, ₹ per 10 grams (dataset version 1.0, updated 8 October 2026).
Calculations. Monthly change = this month’s average ÷ the previous month’s − 1, between consecutive published months only. Volatility is the sample standard deviation of monthly changes; the annual figure multiplies it by √12. A drawdown is the latest month’s average ÷ the highest earlier monthly average − 1; an episode runs from a high until the first month at or above it, and recovery time is counted from the lowest month. Rolling 12-, 36- and 60-month changes compare each month with the same month that many months earlier; compound annual rates use (end ÷ start)^(12 ÷ months) − 1. Percentages are rounded after calculation.
Full standards: BankCreds research methodology.
Data sources
- Reserve Bank of India, Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy — table “Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Domestic and Foreign Markets” (Gold, Mumbai); retrieved 4 October 2026.
- Reserve Bank of India, RBI Bulletin — Current Statistics No. 21, “Monthly Average Price of Gold and Silver in Mumbai”; retrieved 4 October 2026.
Limitations
- Monthly averages understate volatility: daily and intra-month moves are larger than the monthly changes shown.
- All findings describe Oct 2016–Jul 2026, a period in which gold rose strongly; other periods produced very different drawdowns and holding-period outcomes.
- Prices are Mumbai bullion prices excluding GST and making charges; returns on jewellery, coins or funds differ.
- Nothing here forecasts prices or recommends buying, selling or borrowing against gold.
Download the report
The full report as a PDF — findings, charts, data tables, methodology and sources — updated 8 October 2026.
Download PDF reportFrequently asked questions
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You may quote the findings and reuse the charts under CC BY 4.0. Please credit BankCreds Research and link to this page. More options: Use our data.
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Version history. Report v1.0 (2026-10-08): First publication. · RBI dataset v1.0 (2026-10-08): First release: 118 months, 2016-10 to 2026-07.
This research describes historical data. It is not investment, borrowing or tax advice, does not forecast prices and does not guarantee any outcome. See our editorial policy, fact-checking policy and corrections policy.